Rick Hasen at Election Law Blog asks:
I wonder if this is the map that the McCain campaign has in mind, which would explain the recent focus on Pa. (Via Andrew Sullivan). I’ll have to defer to others who follow this closely, but is there a realistic scenario where Sen. McCain can capture Pa. but lose Virginia and Colorado?
The big problem with such a strategy, however, is this:
Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total — 52 percent, in fact — well outdistancing the Republican’s 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania’s independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania’s Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent.